GreeksLive, a cryptocurrency analytics firm, assessed current market expectations and their potential impact on Bitcoin ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

According to the company's analysis, futures markets are virtually certain that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. Based on current prices, there is a 99% chance that rates will remain unchanged in the 3.5%–3.75% range. A similar scenario is emerging for the April meeting, where markets are pricing a 97% chance of "no change" in interest rates.

According to GreeksLive, the next two Fed meetings could be among the most important turning points of the year for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts note that the global macroeconomic environment is quite challenging, with the war in the Middle East, in particular, pushing up energy prices, which is putting additional pressure on inflation (PCE). In the wake of these events, the "optimism about interest rate cuts" at the beginning of the year has gradually given way to expectations of "high interest rates for an extended period."

Markets are closely watching March 18 and April 29 as the dates of the year. At the March 18 meeting, special attention will be paid to the Fed's "dot chart," which shows forecasts for future interest rates. According to analysis, there is a possibility that these forecasts do not include any interest rate cuts until 2026. The April 29 meeting is particularly significant; it will be the last critical meeting before Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends. It is argued that Powell's statements at this meeting could be crucial in determining liquidity conditions in the second half of the year.

As for Bitcoin, the price is consolidating around $74,000, and market sentiment is reportedly in "neutral" territory. GreeksLive predicts that strong signals from the Federal Reserve, particularly a reduction in expectations for an interest rate cut in 2026, could lead to tighter liquidity and push Bitcoin's price down to the $68,000 support level. Conversely, unexpected shifts toward loose monetary policy (such as Powell's statements that inflation is under control or that the focus will be on the labor market) could push Bitcoin closer to $80,000 due to increased liquidity expectations.

Another key element highlighted in the analysis is Kevin Warsh, dubbed the "X factor." Uncertainty surrounding Warsh's monetary policy approach, nominated by US President Donald Trump for the Fed chairmanship, is seen as an additional risk factor in the markets. According to GreeksLive, institutional investors, especially ahead of the April meeting, may reduce their positions due to this uncertainty, leading to risk aversion. This situation could cause sharp volatility, especially in the altcoin market.

There are also warnings that a rise in the dollar index (DXY) above 106 could put short-term pressure on crypto assets.

Long-term, it is noted that Bitcoin's supply continues to decline after the halving, and this situation could continue to have a favorable impact on the price.

Source: https://cryptonews.net/ru/news/bitcoin/32570112/

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